Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

12/17/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (projected) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on December 17th 2018.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the November report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.4 percent compared to 2018 to 19.659 million metric tons (43,250 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption was upgraded from the November report by1.0 percent in 2019 corresponding to 42.3 kg. (93.0 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.4 percent of RTC production attaining 3.221 million metric tons (7,085 million lbs.) and based on the presumption that the recently concluded USMCA will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico.

Turkey production will increase by 0.2 percent in 2019 to 2.684 m metric tons (5,905 million lbs.) RTC, due to a revision of 2018 production now projected to be 2.677 million lbs. (5.890 million lbs.). Per capita consumption will attain 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection. Export volume will be 0.4 percent lower at 0.270 million metric tons (595 million lbs.). Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, recent egg settings, poult placements and disposal, weekly production levels and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of all three nations, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2017 (actual)

2018 (updated)

2019 % Difference (forecast) 2018 to 2019

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

18.937

19.395

19.659 +1.4

Consumption (kg per capita)

41.3

41.9

42.3 +1.0

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.087

3.207

3.221 -0.4

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.5

16.4 -0.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.677

2.684 +0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.4

7.3 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.282

0.271

0.270 -0.4

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

10.1

10.1 nil

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -December 17 th 2018


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-October 2018.

12/14/2018

Data for January-October 2018 indicates a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding ten months of 2017. Total broiler exports for January-October 2018 attained 2,661,068 metric tons, 3.9 percent more than the corresponding period in 2017 (2,561,051 metric tons). Total value improved by 2.1 percent to $2,670 million ($2,614 million).

During January-October 2018 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,866,373 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3,024 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,055 per metric ton, 0.9 percent higher in value compared to the first ten months of 2017 ($1,065 per m. ton).


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #584 December 11th 2018

12/11/2018

OVERVIEW

The December11th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests are based on actual yield and harvest data. The acreage for corn was retained from the July through November WASDE projections at 81.8 million acres (83.1 million in 2017). Soybeans will be harvested from 88.3 million acres (89.5 million acres in 2017).

The USDA confirmed corn yield to be 178.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from the November WASDE (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was held from November at 52.1 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017).

The December USDA projection of ending stock for corn was raised 2.6 percent to 1,781 million bushels for November. Ending stock for soybeans was held at 955 million bushels with minimal effect on CME quotation subsequent to the noon release of the December WASDE.

The 2018 corn and soybean crops will be the second largest ever but harvested during a time of uncertainty regarding previously projected, anticipated and ongoing export volumes. The USDA projections of ending stocks and hence prices for corn and soybeans take into account current announced tariffs on U.S. products but do not reflect future tariffs or an anticipated resolution of the trade conflict with China.


 

 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane