Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA- WASDE FORECAST #577, May 10th 2018

05/11/2018

OVERVIEW

The May 10th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests are based on more defined planting intentions by farmers, long-range weather forecasts and historical data. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were projected to be 80.7 million acres (83.1 million in 2017) and 89.2 million acres, (89.5 million acres in 2017) respectively. The USDA lowered corn yield to 174.0 bushels per acre (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was lowered to 48.5 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017). The USDA May projection of ending stock for corn was reduced 22.9 percent to 1,682 million bushels due to lower “Food and Seed” and “Ethanol” use. Ending stock for soybeans was lowered 24.5 percent to 415 million bushels compared to the April 2018 WASDE Report.

It is accepted that the USDA projections of ending stocks and prices are independent of disruption by current uncertainties concerning future trade embargos or punitive tariffs.

CORN

The projection of the corn harvest was lowered from the April 2018 Report to 14,040 million bushels consistent with more firm intentions of farmers as half the crop is in the ground. The projection for 2018 can be compared to the 2017 harvest of 14,577 million bushels and is down 7.3 percent from the 2016 near-record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was raised 0.9 percent to 5,625 m. bushels and exports were lowered to 2,100 m bushels. “Feed and Residual” was reduced by 125 m. bushels resulting in a corresponding decrease of 22.9 percent in ending stocks to 1,682 m. bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price was widened to 330 to 430 cents per bushel. At close of trading on May 11 th CME quotations for May and July 2018 corn were 390 cents and 397 cents per bushel respectively.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-March 2018.

05/11/2018

Data for January-March 2018 indicate a relatively static export market for broiler parts in comparison to the first quarter of 2017. Broiler exports for January-March 2018 attained 774,803 metric tons, 0.2 percent less than in the corresponding period in 2017 (776,040 metric tons) although total value improved by 10.7 percent to $784 million.

 

During January-March 2018 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 828,618 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $881 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,063 per metric ton, 11.1 percent higher in value compared to January-March 2017 ($957 per m. ton).


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2017 and 2018.

03/16/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2016 (actual), 2017 (updated) and 2018 (forecast) respectively on March 14th 2018. Broiler meat production will increase by 2.3 percent in 2018 to 42,600 million lbs. (19,364 m. metric tons) RTC.

Turkey production was decreased fractionally for 2018 to 5,975 million lbs. (2,716 m. metric tons) RTC. Forecast values for production and consumption of turkey in 2018 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, production and inventory.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2016 (actual)

2017

(update)

2018 Difference

(forecast) ’17 to ‘18 (%)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

18.497

18.937

19.364 +2.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

40.8

41.3

42.1 +1.9

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.021*

3.082

3.159 +1.7

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.3

16.3 0

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.718

2.716 <-0.1

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.6

7.5

7.5 0

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.265*

0.282

0.287 +3.5

Proportion of production (%)

9.8

10.4

10.6 +3.8

*Depressed by import embargos due to HPAI

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –March 14 th 2018


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-November 2017.

01/12/2018

-Continued Improvements in Volume and Value Compared to 2016.

Data for the first eleven months of 2017 indicate an improvement in export volume after lifting of embargos following the eight rapidly-controlled AI events during March in Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. Broiler meat exports for the period January through November 2017 attained 2,816,411 metric tons, 2.7 percent higher than the first eleven months of 2016 (2,741,379 metric tons)

During January-November 2017 the National Chicken Council, citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,915,513 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3.06 Billion with an average unit value of $1,068 per metric ton, 8.4 percent more than in value compared to January-November 2016 ($978 per m. ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for January-November 2017 compared with the corresponding months in 2016 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 95.3%; Unit value $996 per metric ton ($914)

  • Prepared chicken 2.7%; Unit value $3,545 per metric ton ($3,508)

  • Whole chicken 2.0%; Unit value $1,074 per metric ton ($1,121)

    The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports for the first eleven months of 2017 with corresponding figures for 2016:-

    PRODUCT Jan.-Nov. 2016 Jan.-Nov. 2017 Difference

    Broiler Meat

    Volume (metric tons) 2,741,379 2,816,411 +75,032 (+2.7%)

    Value ( $ million) 2,611 2,879 +268 (+10.3%)

    Unit value ( $/m. ton) 952 1,022 +70 (+7.3%)

    Turkey Meat

    Volume (metric tons) 235,619 258,207 +22,588 (+9.6%)

    Value ($ million) 543 558 +15 (+2.8%)

    Unit value ($/m. ton) 2,305 2,161 -144 (-6.2%)

    Chicken Paws

    Volume (metric tons) 144,029 167,273 +23,244 (+16.1%)

    Value ($ million) 184 250 +66 (+35.9%)

    Unit value ($/m. ton) 1,277 1,495 +218 (+17.1%)

    COMPARISON OF U.S. EXPORT DATA FOR JANUARY-NOVEMBER 2017

    COMPARED TO 2016

    Total broiler exports for January-November 2017 compared with the corresponding eleven months in 2016 increased by 2.7 percent in volume and 10.3 percent in value. Unit value increased 7.3 percent from $952 per metric ton to $1,022 per metric ton. In November 2017, compared to the corresponding month in 2016, volume was up 2.2 percent and total value was 13.8 percent higher due to a rise of 11.4 percent in unit value to $1,043.

    The U.S. broiler industry sells leg quarters, an undifferentiated commodity, in a shrinking and price-sensitive market against competition from other exporters and against domestic production in importing nations. The gain in value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the currencies of Brazil and Thailand impacts competitiveness.

    The top five importers of broiler meat represented 41.8 percent of shipments during January-November 2017. The top ten importers contributed 59.2 percent of volume.

    Mexico was the largest importer of broiler meat from the U.S. during the eleven-month period in 2017 with 19.4 percent of volume and 16.5 percent of total value with a unit value of $865 per metric ton.

    Cuba attained the second-rank by volume with 6.9 percent of the total exported and increased their import volume from the U.S. by 35.6 percent compared to the volume for the first eleven months of 2016. It is hoped that this trade worth $153 million over the period at a unit price of $783 per metric ton will not be compromised by injudicious diplomatic activity or politically inspired restraints.

    Angola remained as the third-place importer with 5.7 percent of volume over eleven months, 54.8 percent above 2016.

    South Africa, the subject of considerable litigation and Congressional pressure in 2015 and 2016, ranked 9th during the eleven-month period with imports of 85,710 metric tons of in-bone product with a total value of $76.2 million (Unit value of $889 per metric ton). The incremental volume of 57,787 m. tons imported represents a 218 percent increase over the first eleven months of 2016.

    There is consistent expansion of the ten, second-tier nations importing broiler meat with average monthly volumes ranging from 3,000 to 7,000 m. tons. This is attributed to the promotional activities of the USAPEEC and their regional representatives interacting with traders.

    The volume of turkey meat exported during January-November 2017 increased by 9.6 percent and value rose by 2.8 percent compared to 2016 but there was a reduction in unit value of 6.2 percent from $2,305 per metric ton to $2,161 per metric ton.

    Mexico received 61.6 percent of turkey meat shipped over eleven months representing an increase over 2016 of 14.3 percent, attaining 58.1 percent of value exported.

    Hong Kong, the second-ranked importer after Mexico reduced volume of turkey meat by 82 percent compared to the first eleven months of 2016. Japan was down by 2.6 percent over the period.

    Exports of chicken paws during the past eleven months increased in total volume by 16.1 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2016, with an increase in value by 35.9 percent. This was due to a 17.1 percent increase in unit value to $1,495 per ton. Hong Kong imported 97.6 percent of shipments. Trade in feet and paws was impacted by the unjustified blanket embargo imposed on the U.S. by China, our largest importer at the beginning of May 2015. This action included all imports from the entire U.S. following outbreaks of H5N2 strain avian influenza in turkey grow-out operations, egg-producing complexes, non-commercial farms and wild birds in the Northwest and North Central states. These areas were completely separated from regions with broiler production.

     

    As the U.S. approaches the 6th Round of negotiations with Mexico and Canada in late January 2018 it is important to recognize that export of chicken and turkey products to our NAFTA partners amounted to $1.182 Billion over the first eleven months of 2017. This value is now in jeopardy unless an equitable re-negotiation of terms can be achieved.

    There have been no reports of incident cases of either LPAI or HPAI in commercial flocks for over nine months. The statutory 90-day World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) period extending from decontamination after the last reported case has long since expired. Exports from other than the same counties or states where diagnosed, should not affect the volume of exports going forward contingent on importers following the Health OIE policy on regionalization. The live-bird market system, laying hens with outside access and migratory birds represent an ongoing danger to the entire U.S. commercial industry and the eligibility to export.

    (SMS 081-17. January 12th 2017)


 

 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane