Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #583 November 8th 2018

11/08/2018

OVERVIEW

The October 11th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests are based on actual planting data, crop progress with monitoring by "scouts", recorded crop progress and the fact that 70 percent of the new-crop corn and 87 percent of soybeans have been harvested. The acreage for corn was retained from the July through October projections at 81.8 million acres (83.1 million in 2017). Soybeans will be harvested from 88.3 million acres (89.5 million acres in 2017).

The USDA lowered corn yield by 1.0 percent to 178.9 bushels per acre from the October WASDE (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was reduced by 1.9 percent from October to 52.1 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017).

The November USDA projection of ending stock for corn was lowered by 4.4 percent to 1,736 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans was raised 7.7 percent to 955 million bushels resulting in predictable declines in CME quotations.

The 2018 corn and soybean crops will be the second largest ever but will be harvested during a time of uncertainty regarding previously projected, anticipated and actual export volumes. The USDA projections of ending stocks and hence prices for corn and soybeans take into account current announced tariffs on U.S. products but do not reflect tariffs or unlikely resolution of the trade conflict with China.


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

10/19/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (projected) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on October 17th 2018.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the September report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.9 percent compared to 2018 to 19.714 million metric tons (43,371 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will increase by 1.4 percent to 42.6 kg. (93.7 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.2 percent of RTC production attaining 3.202 million metric tons (7,045 million lbs.) and based on the presumption that the recently concluded USMCA will be approved by Congress.

Turkey production will increase by 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.720 m metric tons (5,984 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will attain 7.5 kg. (16.3 lb.) during 2019. Export volume will decline by 1.5 percent to 0.266 m metric tons (585,200 lbs.). Forecast values for production and consumption of turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, recent egg settings and poult placements, weekly production and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA will avert imposition of tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2017 (actual)

2018 (updated)

2019 % Difference

(forecast) 2018 to 2019

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

18.937

19.350

19.714 +1.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

41.3

42.0

42.6 +1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.087

3.122

3.202 +2.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.1

16.2 +0.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.681

2.720 +1.4

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.4

7.5 +1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.282

0.270

0.266 -1.5

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

10.1

9.8 -2.9

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -October 17 th 2018


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-August 2018.

10/13/2018

Data for January-August 2018 indicates a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding eight months of 2017. Total broiler exports for January-August 2018 attained 2,094,897 metric tons, 3.0 percent more than the corresponding period in 2017 (2,033,204 metric tons) and total value improved by 5.2 percent to $2,147 million ($2,040 million).

 

During January-August 2018 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,255,087 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $2,426 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,076 per metric ton, 4.8 percent higher in value compared to the first eight months of 2017 ($1,048 per m. ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for January-August 2018 compared with the equivalent months in 2017 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

 

  • Chicken parts                          95.9%;  Unit value $1,004 per metric ton  ($978)
  • Prepared chicken                      2.8%;  Unit value $3,567 per metric ton ($3,532)
  • Whole chicken                          1.3%;  Unit value $1,036 per metric ton  ($1,024) 

 
The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports in January-August 2018 with corresponding figures for 2017:-

 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #582 October 11th 2018

10/11/2018

Corn and soybean crops will be the second largest ever but will be harvested during a time of uncertainty regarding previously projected, anticipated and actual export volumes. The USDA projections of ending stocks and hence prices for corn and soybeans take into account current announced tariffs on U.S. products but do not reflect predicted or threatened tariffs, intensification or unlikely resolution of trade conflicts.

CORN

The projection of the corn harvest was raised 0.3 percent from the September WASDE Report to 14,778 million bushels consistent with the reality that 93 percent of the crop is mature and 34 percent has been harvested. The projection for 2018 can be compared to the 2017 harvest of 14,577 million bushels and is down only 2.4 percent from the 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The "Ethanol and Byproducts" category was retained at 5,650 m. bushels and exports were raised 75 m bushels to 2,475 million bushels. "Feed and Residual" was lowered by 25 m. bushels to 5,550 million bushels. Ending stocks will increase 2.2 percent to 1,813 m. bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price was unchanged over a range to 300 to 400 cents per bushel. At 13H00 on October 11th CME quotations for December 2018 and March 2019 corn were 397 cents and 381 cents per bushel respectively.

OCTOBER 2018 WASDE #582 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2018 CORN HARVEST:


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

09/19/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (projected) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on September 18th 2018.

 

Broiler data for 2019 was unchanged from the August report. Production will increase by 1.9 percent compared to 2018 to 19.736 million metric tons (43,420 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will increase by 1.2 percent to 42.6 kg. (93.7 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.2 percent of RTC production attaining 3.202 million metric tons (7,045 million lbs.) and based on the presumption that either NAFTA will be renegotiated or that a bilateral agreement with Mexico will be approved by Congress.

 

Turkey production will increase by 0.7 percent in 2019 to 2.720 m metric tons (5,997 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will attain 7.4 kg. (16.3 lb.) during 2019. Export volume will increase by 1.7 percent to 0.291 m metric tons (640,000 lbs.).  Forecast values for production and consumption of turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, recent egg settings and poult placements, weekly production and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account either renegotiation of NAFTA or a bilateral agreement with Mexico averting imposition of tariffs. Threatened tariffs would lead to a diminished share of the market in Mexico based on competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.


 

 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane