According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report, UP2024-0004, released February 22nd, chicken production in 2024 will expand by 3.1 percent to 1.340 million metric tons. Total imports will attain 52,000 metric tons and exports 440,000 metric tons with net exports representing 29 percent of production. Of the 952,000 metric tons for domestic use, per capita, will attain 26kg (57 lbs.) assuming a population of 37 million.
Despite the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in 2022, the chicken industry has survived and expanded. This, in part, is due to the location of facilities in the central and western regions of the Nation together with the availability of grains at relatively low cost.
Production in Ukraine is dominated by MHP SE, responsible for 70 percent of output. This public-traded company has received loans through recent critical periods and enjoys the benefits of full integration from cultivation of feed ingredients, oil seed crushing, live production, processing and distribution. In addition to MHP, medium-sized producers include Agrooven, Dniprovskyi, Volldymyr-volynsk, PTA Hofabryka, Hubyn and Ular. Collectively, MHP and these companies are responsible for 90 percent of production.
Following the 2022 invasion, supply chains were disrupted and the Black Sea export route was closed. Labor availability was impacted by workers who volunteered for military service and as a result of conscription. During late 2022 and through 2023, infrastructure was repaired and the front line in the east of the nation was stabilized. Following the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine established export capability through the coast-hugging Humanitarian Corridor and by rail transport. Currently exports are restrained by a shortage of refrigerated containers.
The E.U. is the main importer of chicken from Ukraine based on tariff-free and quota-free market access granted by the European Commission. Other factors favoring Ukraine include proximity to E.U. markets and a favorable production cost relative to Eastern Europe.
Europe intends to impose tariffs above a level of 160,000 metric tons although below exports to the E.U. in 2023. In the event that Ukraine becomes non-competitive above the free-trade level as a result of tariffs, the nation will explore export opportunities for exports to the Middle East.