Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

 

USDA - WASDE FORECAST #564, April 11th 2017

Apr 12, 2017

    

Overview

The April 11th 2017 USDA WASDE projections for the 2016/7 corn and soybean crops reflected actual harvest data. Areas for corn and soybeans were unchanged at 86.7 million and 82.7 million acres respectively. The USDA retained corn and soybean yields to 174.6 bushels per acre and 52.1 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for corn and soybeans were projected at 2,320 million bushels (unchanged from March) and for soybeans 445 million bushels (up 0.5 percent) compared to the data in the March WASDE Report.

  

Corn

The corn harvest attained a near record of 15,148 million bushels. None of the major categories of use were appreciably changed as is normal for a post-harvest WASDE report. The projected USDA range in farm price incorporated a 30 cent per bushel spread and price was up 5 cents per bushel on the low end and down 5 cents on the high end of the range compared to the March 2017 WASDE Report, attaining 325 to 355 cents per bushel. At the close of trading on April 11th, CME quotations for May and July 2017 corn were 367 cents and 374 cents per bushel respectively suggesting that the USDA projections may be low.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was four percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. It is doubtful that the incoming Administration will alter existing RFS levels given support of the Midwest agricultural sector to the election outcome and reinforced by assurances to Corn-State legislators in early January 2017. A wild card will be the influence of the incoming EPA Administrator and the Secretary of Energy, both of whom favor the oil and refining industries of their home states and both have historically opposed the RFS. Business associates of the President-elect have recently commented negatively on the system of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) which affect the profitability of many domestic refineries. For April, USDA raised diversion of corn to ethanol by 50 million bushels.

The prevailing but stable historically low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America. Supply is a function of now restricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iraq and Iran, and interference by Russia in Mideast affairs. Reduced output according to an OPEC “agreement” in early December 2016 and subsequent negotiations between OPEC and Russia are all contributory factors, determining the balance between supply and demand which is important to the livestock industry as oil price is correlated to grain prices. The WTI fluctuated in a narrow range of $51 to $53 per barrel during the past month with a sharp rise in early April.

   
 

USDA- WASDE FORECAST #560, December 9th 2016

Dec 14, 2016

    

Overview

The December 9th USDA WASDE projections for the 2016 corn and soybean crops reflected actual harvest data. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans remained at 86.8 million and 83 million acres respectively. The USDA retained corn and soybean yields at 175.3 bushels per acre and 52.5 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for corn and soybeans were unchanged at 2,403 million bushels and 480 million bushels.

  

Corn

The corn harvest attained a near record of 15,225 million bushels. None of the major categories of use were changed as is normal for the December WASDE report which reflects actual harvest. The projected USDA range in farm price incorporated a 60 cent per bushel spread and price was raised by 10 cents per bushel on the low end and by 5 cents per bushel on the high end of the range compared to the November WASDE Report, attaining 305 to 365 cents per bushel. Near close of trading on December 9th, CME quotations for December ‘16 and March ‘17 corn were 351 cents and 359 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 10 cents per bushel above 1st week November trade levels.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was four percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. It is doubtful that the incoming Administration will alter existing RFS levels given support of the Midwest agricultural sector to the election outcome. A wild card will be the influence of the EPA-Director designate who favors the oil and refining industries which oppose the RFS. Business associates of the President-elect have recently commented adversely on the system of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) which affect the profitability of many domestic refineries. The coming year should emerge as an interesting exercise in power shifts with very little precedent to indicate future policy “as the swamp drains”

The prevailing but stable historically low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America. Supply is a function of unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iraq and Iran, and interference by Russia in Mideast affairs. Reduced output according to an OPEC “agreement” in early December are all contributory factors, determining the balance between supply and demand which is important to the livestock industry as oil price is correlated to grain prices. The WTI fluctuated between $47 and $49 per barrel during the past month but rose after the OPEC Agreement, to settle up 4 percent to $52 on December 9th.

   
 

SEPTEMBER 2016 EX-FARM MARGINS CONTINUE NEGATIVE DESPITE LOWER FEED COST

Oct 14, 2016

    

Introduction.

Comments supplementing the production summary tables for the latest series reflecting USDA September 2016 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on October 11th 2016, are tabulated together with comparison values from the previous September 8th 2016 posting.

  

EGG-CITE summarizes weekly USDA data on egg production and prices in each edition.

September 2016 Cost and Revenue Data

The USDA reports data for six regions, respectively comprising the Northeast, South East (Mid-Atlantic), South Central, Midwest, Northwest and California (NW and California combined in some tables)

  • The USDA ex farm blended egg price in September 2016 fell to 38.3 cents per dozen, 3.7 percent less than in August. The September 2016 value should be compared to 169.5 cents per dozen for the corresponding month in 2015 and 84.8 cents per dozen in September 2014. It is noted that from November 2014 through March 2015, prices were inflated due to implementation of California Proposition #2 in January 2015 and also at the end of this period by the seasonal pre-Easter rise. Thereafter prices responded positively to shortages caused by HPAI in the upper Midwest with a peak in August.
  • During the first four months of 2016 there was no material change in average feed price expressed as a component of the first-cycle production cost per dozen over the five regions monitored by the USDA. During May feed cost rose 10.3 percent over April to 35.75 cents and then by an additional 3.8 percent to 37.12 cents per dozen in June. The feed component of cost fell 2.4 percent from August to 31.32 cents per dozen in September. Feed cost during 2015 averaged 34.9 cents per dozen. The average feed cost in 2014 was 43.2 cents per dozen in contrast to 2013 which was considerably higher at 50.12 cents per dozen, reflecting the drought-affected crop of 2012.
  • Combining data from the USDA and the EIC (formerly data from the University of California), producers recorded a negative margin of -20.8 cents per dozen at farm level for flocks in September compared to a negative margin of -20.2 cents per dozen in August. The algebraic average margin for the first nine months of 2016 is -73.4 cents per dozen with losses experienced for each of the past six months.  Ex-farm margin for 2015 amounted to a monthly average of 74.5 cents per dozen. For 2014, average ex-farm contribution margin was 33.9 cents per dozen with all months positive. During 2013, a monthly algebraic average margin of 15.3 cents per dozen was earned.
  • The simple average price of feed for September over the 5-regions of $199.46 was 2.4 percent lower than in August. The Southeast recorded the highest cost among regions in August at $221.70 compared to the lowest region, the Midwest at $174.89 per ton. The average figure includes ingredients plus milling and delivery at approximately $10 per ton.  A 5.8 percent decrease in the price of soybean meal from $363 per ton in August to $342 per ton in September was the driver of the cost decrease. The price of corn decreased 0.4 percent to $143 per ton in September. There was a $67.68 per ton differential in corn price between the Midwest and the Southeast in September 2016. Average feed cost during 2012 was $315.80 per ton compared to $300.80 for 2013.  Average feed cost per dozen during 2014 was 43.1 cents per dozen with the prevailing price of feed of $259.10 per ton for the five regions. Feed price will continue to be the major factor driving production cost and hence margin. Each $10 per ton difference in feed cost represents 1.75 cents per dozen.
  • The EIC-calculated the 6-Region total nest-run production cost in September to be 59.12 cents per dozen, 1.4 percent lower than 59.99 cents per dozen in August. Production costs during September ranged from 54.72 cents per dozen in the Midwest up to 75.50 cents per dozen in California which was higher than the Midwest region by 20.78 cents per dozen. The differential in feed cost between the Southeast and the Midwest regions was 7.4 cents per dozen in September.
  • Retail egg prices as determined by the Department of Commerce for August averaged 145.5 cents per dozen, down by 5.9 percent or 9.1 cents per dozen compared to July. In August 2015 and 2014 retail prices were 294.3centsper dozen (post HPAI) and 197.9 cents per dozen respectively. Over the past seven months retail prices have not declined in proportion to ex-farm prices allowing higher margins at retail which depresses demand.
   
 

USDA - WASDE FORECAST #558, OCTOBER 12th 2016

Oct 14, 2016

    

Overview

The October 12th USDA WASDE projections for the 2016-17 corn and soybean crops reflected actual planting data and recent favorable crop progress reports. Harvest areas for corn was increased to 86.8 million acres but soybean acreage was unaltered. The USDA lowered corn yield by 0.6 percent to 173.4 bushels per acre but soybeans were raised by 1.5 percent to 51.4 bushels per acre. These adjustments in the October report contributed to a slight increase in ending stocks for corn to 2,320 million bushels and a bearish ending stock for soybeans of 395 million bushels.

  

Corn

The corn harvest should attain a near record of 15,057 million bushels despite a revised lower yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. The “Feed and Residual” “Food and Seed” and “Ethanol and By-products” categories were unaltered from September as documented in the subsequent table. Diversion of corn to ethanol was projected at 5,275 million bushels or 31.3 percent of the increased availability despite projections of lower U.S. fuel demand. It is evident that increased ethanol production will be exported. The corn “Exports” category was raised to 2,225 million bushels compared to the July through September WASDE Reports, presumably reflecting anticipated demand from Brazil.

This nation suffering from drought-impacted shortages has maxed-out imports from Argentina and Paraguay and is willing to receive GM-corn consignments from the U.S. despite the adverse currency exchange of 3.2 reals to the dollar. Residual corn stock was adjusted downwards from 2,384 million bushels to 2,320 million bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price incorporated a 60 cent per bushel spread and price was raised by 5 cents per bushel on either end of the range compared to the August WASDE Report, attaining 295 to 355 cents per bushel.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was four percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. The prevailing but stable historically low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America coupled with unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iran, rumored collusion between that nation and Russia and reduced impact of OPEC all as contributory factors, determining the balance between supply and demand. Oil price is correlated to grain prices with WTI hovering at $50 per barrel over the past week.

At 14H00 EDT October 12th, CME quotations for December ‘16 and March ‘17 corn were 338 cents and 350 cents per bushel respectively, approximately three percent above the September values. Corn fell 6.5 cents per bushel after the noon release of the October WASDE.   

Soybeans

The area of soybeans to be harvested remained at 83.0 million acres but with a revised estimate of yield at 51.4 bushels per acre with a projected production of 4,269 million bushels. The “Beginning Stocks” category was revised upwards to 197 million bushels with a supply of 4,496 million bushels. The “Exports” category was raised by 40 million bushels to 2,025 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans was raised to 395 million bushels due to changes in crushing and exports relative to availability.

The USDA retained the ex-farm price for soybeans as projected in September to a range of 830 cents to 980 cents per bushel. At 14H00 after the noon release of the October WASDE, CME quotations for soybeans for November ‘16 and January ‘17 delivery were 952 cents and 960 cents per bushel respectively, approximately three percent below the August values.

Production of soybean meal was unchanged at 46.275 million tons. Estimated soybean meal prices were retained by the USDA to a range of $300 to $340 per ton. At 14H00 EDT on October 12th, CME quotations for October and December 2016 soybean meal were $296 and $298 respectively, approximately seven percent less than in September.

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest stable to lower production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.
   
 

USDA- WASDE FORECAST #555, July 12th 2016

Jul 13, 2016

    

Overview

The July 12th USDA WASDE projections for the 2016-17 corn and soybean crops reflected actual  planting data and recent crop progress reports. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were raised by 1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively to 86.6 million acres and 83.0 million acres.

  

Corn

The corn harvest should attain a near record of 14,540 million bushels based on a yield of 168.0 bushels per acre. The “Feed and Residual” category was established to be 5,550 million bushels but the “Food and Seed” category was raised 5 million bushels as documented in the subsequent tables. Diversion of corn to ethanol was projected at 5,295 million bushels or 32.4 percent of the increased availability despite projections of lower U.S. fuel demand. It is evident that increased ethanol production will be exported. The corn “Exports” category was increased by 5.1 percent to 2,050 million bushels compared to the June WASDE Report. Residual corn stock was adjusted to 2,081 million bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price retained the 60 cent per bushel spread but decreased price by 10 cents per bushel on either end of the range compared to the June WASDE Report, attaining 310 to 370 cents per bushel.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was 4 percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. The prevailing low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America coupled with unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iran, reduced impact of OPEC as contributory factors determining the balance between supply and demand.

At the close of trading on July 12th, CME quotations for July and September 2016 corn were 353 cents and 352 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 17 percent below the June values.

Soybeans                                                               

The area of soybeans to be harvested increased by 2.3 percent to 83.0 million acres, with a yield of 46.7 bushels per acre and a projected production of 3,880 million bushels. The “Beginning Stocks” category was revised down to 350 million bushels with a supply of 4,260 million bushels. The “Exports” category was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1,920 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans was projected to be 290 million bushels due to changes in crushing and exports relative to availability. The USDA retained the ex-farm price for soybeans as projected in June to a range to 875 cents to 1,025 cents per bushel. At the close of trading on June 12th CME quotations for soybeans for July and September delivery were 1,107 cents and 1,182 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 6.3 percent below the June values.

Production of soybean meal was projected to be 45.675 million tons. Estimated soybean meal prices were raised $5 per ton in July to a range of $325 to $365 per ton. At the close of trading on July 12th, CME quotations for July and September 2016 soybean meal were $378 and $377 respectively, approximately 6.2 percent less than in June.

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest stable production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.
   
 

USDA - WASDE FORECAST #549, January 12th 2015

Jan 15, 2016
    

The January USDA WASDE projections for the 2015 corn and soybean crops were lowered by 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. Ending stocks were up by 1.0 percent to 1,802 million bushels for corn and down 5.3 percent to 440 million bushels for soybeans.

The corn harvest was reduced to 13,601 million bushels based on a 0.9 percent reduction in yield to 168.4 bushels per acre. Area harvested remained at 80.7 million acres bushels. The “Feed and Residual”, “Food and Seed” and the “Ethanol and By-products (DDGS)” categories were only slightly changed as documented in the subsequent tables. Diversion of corn to ethanol was estimated at 5,200 million bushels or 33.8 percent of the projected availability despite projections of lower U.S. fuel demand. The increase in “Ending Stocks” by 17 million bushels was partly attributed to a 50 million bushel decline in the “Exports” category. The Stock-to-Domestic Use relationship increased numerically to 15.8 percent, from 15.0 percent in the November WASDE Report. The projected USDA farm price for corn was lowered by 5 cents per bushel on both ends of the range in the November WASDE Report to 330 to 390 cents per bushel.

The RFS for 2016 was set at 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th. (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was 4 percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. The supply of ethanol exceeds the U.S. demand by about 7 percent, based on a 10 percent blend rate, resulting in export of this commodity. Crude (WTI) oil fluctuated from $30 to $35 per barrel in December but is hovering at $30 per barrel in mid-January, despite the actions of OPEC and other producers. The prevailing low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America and unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia as factors determining the balance between supply and demand. It is noteworthy that China has displaced the U.S. as the largest importer of crude oil.

   
 

USDA - WASDE FORECAST #548, December 9th 2015

Dec 11, 2015
    

The December USDA WASDE projections for corn and soybeans were essentially unchanged with respect to production and utilization, consistent with completion of the 2015 harvest.

The area of corn harvested was retained at 80.7 million acres with a yield of 169.3 bushels per acre contributing to a crop of 13,654 million bushels, unchanged from the November WASDE Report representing the third-largest corn harvest ever. Ending stocks were increased by 25 million bushels to 1,785 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual”, “Food and Seed”, “Ethanol and By-products (DDGS)” and the “Export” categories were only slightly changed as documented in the subsequent tables. Diversion of corn to ethanol was increased to 5,200 million bushels or 33.7 percent of the projected availability due to projections of higher fuel demand. The Stock-to-Domestic Use relationship increased numerically to 15.0 percent, from 14.8 percent in the November WASDE Report, based on a higher ending stock increased by 25 m bushels to 1,785 m bushels. The projected USDA farm price for corn was unchanged from the November WASDE values at a range of 335 to 395 cents per bushel.

 

   
 

2015 U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports Through July

Sep 16, 2015
    

July was the third month that the effects of the Midwest HPAI outbreak could be clearly quantified in export data. Chicken exports excluding paws were 12.3 percent lower during the first seven months of 2015 compared to the corresponding period in 2014. July volume alone was down by 25.8 percent. The value of exports was correspondingly reduced by 21.2 percent comparing the seven-month periods and by 41.1 percent in July 2015 compared to 2014.

Exports of turkey products were more severely affected with declines in volume and value of 26.0 percent and 17.3 percent respectively, reflecting outbreaks in growing farms in Minnesota, Iowa and the Dakotas.

   
 

U.S. Broiler Production and Prices

Jan 22, 2015
    

There has been considerable speculation that injudicious expansion in the U.S. broiler industry would lead to lower prices and hence depressed profitability. Since 2012 the industry has attained a 2.0 percent average growth rate but has expanded only 0.37 percent since 2010. The prospect of a “breakout” attributed to lower ingredient costs has lead to speculators shorting the shares of the public-quoted producers who are also the top-ranked integrators, namely Tyson Foods, Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation and Sanderson farms. These three companies represent 47 percent of broiler output based on birds per week. In the event projections for increases in production are conservative and should be in balance with domestic demand and exports.

   
 

Projection of 2014 World Broiler Production

May 1, 2014
    

Recent USDA data confirms that the total volume of processed boiler meat will attain 85.29 million metric tons in 2014, a 1.4 percent increase over 2013. The top-ten producing nations are ranked in the attached table indicating their proportion of total world production, export volume and proportion of exports in relation to national production.  World trade will amount to 10.74 million metric tons or 12.6 percent of total output.

The USDA noted that the production forecast for China has been reduced by 1.0 million metric tons as a result of avian influenza. Most of the impact of this disease will be in the semi-commercial sector and will probably not affect integrated operations.

   
 

USDA Statistics

Mar 28, 2014
    

The USDA-Economic Research Service has published updated forecasts for meat and turkey production for 2014 in the March 14th edition of the Livestock Poultry and Dairy Situation Report.   Data was based on the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and other sources.

   
 

US Parts Exports in January 2014

Mar 20, 2014
    

Broiler parts represented 95% of the total volume of 304,587 metric tons of chicken meat exported in January 2014. The total of parts (predominantly leg quarters) amounted to 89,913 metric tons, a 14.2% increase over the corresponding volume in January 2013.  The value of parts exports was $331.8 million representing a unit value of $1,144 metric ton.  Total value was higher by 5.1% The five top importing nations represented 44% of parts shipped amounting to 127,582 metric tons. These importers were Mexico, (18.2% of volume); Hong Kong, (9.4%); Russia, (7.1%); China, (5.1%) and Georgia, (4.1%). The top 15 markets combined represented 73% of shipments.  

   
 

US Broiler Exports

Jan 11, 2014
    

According to data released by the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. broiler exports showed modest increases during the first 10 months of 2013 compared to the corresponding period in 2012.

Total exports amounted to 2.80 million metric tons, a 2% increase over the 2.74 million metric tons for the period January through October 2012.  Total value increased to $3.8 billion from $3.7 billion in 2012.  Unit value advanced by1.6% from $1,328 per metric ton to $1,360 per metric ton.

   























 
Copyright 2017 Simon M. Shane