Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for April 2024. 

On April 17th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2022 (actual), a revised projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024.

The 2023 projection for broiler production is 46,387 million lbs. (21.085 million metric tons) up 0.4 percent from 2022 and less than a 0.1 percent upward adjustment from the February 2024 report. USDA projected per capita consumption of 99.5 lbs. (45.2 kg.) for 2023, down 0.1 percent from 2022. Exports will attain 7,265 million lbs. (3.302 million metric tons), 0.1 percent below the previous year.

The 2024 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,100 million lbs. (21.409 million metric tons) up 1.5 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 0.8 lb. to 100.3 lbs. (45.6 kg). Exports will be 2.8 percent lower compared to 2023 at 7,060 million lbs. (3.209 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.9 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released April 17th 2024

The April USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2023 including annual production of 5,457 million lbs. (2.480 million metric tons), up 4.5 percent from 2022. Consumption in 2023 was projected to be 14.8 lbs. (6.7 kg.) per capita, up 1.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 20.1 percent in 2023 to 489 million lbs. (222,272 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2023 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2024 forecast for turkey production will be 5,375 million lbs. (2.443 million metric tons) down 1.5 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption down 1.4 percent to 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg). Exports will be 6.3 percent higher than in 2023 to 520 million lbs. (236,000 metric tons) equivalent to 9.7 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to 2022, exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million.

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-February 2024

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-February 2024 attained 573,029 metric tons, 7.2 percent lower than in January-February 2023 (617,370 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports increased by 0.7 percent to $751.8 million ($746.5 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-February 2024 attained 33,173 metric tons, 41.7 percent more than in January-February 2023 (23,404 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 12.7 percent to $90.5 million ($80.3 million).

Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 97 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, unit value of leg quarters increased consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

HPAI has emerged as a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of four continents with seasonal outbreaks. The distribution in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production. Mild overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.

EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT

During January-February 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 578,170 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 6.9 percent from January-February 2023. Exports were valued at $395.0 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,301 per metric ton.

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding month in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

• Chicken parts (excluding feet) 2%; Unit value $1,256 per metric ton ($1,164)
• Prepared chicken 2%; Unit value $4,501 per metric ton ($4,202)
• Whole chicken 6%; Unit value $1,789 per metric ton ($1,593)
• Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,330 per metric ton ($1,222)

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-February 2024 compared with the corresponding months of 2023:-

COMPARISON OF U.S. CHICKEN AND TURKEY EXPORTS

JANUARY-FEBRUATY 2024 COMPARED TO 2023

BROILER EXPORTS

Total broiler parts, predominantly leg quarters but including feet, exported during January-February 2024 compared with January-February 2023 declined by 7.2 percent in volume but was up 0.7 percent in value. Unit value was 8.5 percent higher to $1,312 per metric ton.

During 2023 exports attained 3,635,178 metric tons valued at $4,739 million, down 4.2 percent in volume and down 9.2 percent in value compared to 2022. Unit value was down 9.5 percent to $1,284 per metric ton

Broiler imports in 2023 were projected to attain 72,000 metric tons (158 million lbs.)

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 49.5 percent of shipments during January 2024. The top ten importers comprised 66.9 percent of the total volume reflecting concentration among the significant importing nations.

During January-February 2024 Mexico was the first-ranked importer by volume and value with 124,385 metric tons representing 21.7 percent of export volume up 2.1 percent from January-February 2023. Value at $146.1 million was 19.5 percent of the total for exported broiler products during January-February 2024 and up 17.9 percent from 2023, but with a 16.6 percent increase in unit price to $1,179 per metric ton. Value was up 17.9 percent to $146.7 million with a 12.5 percent increase in unit price to $1,212 per metric ton. During February 2024 volume was up 2.2 percent to 61,325 metric tons and value increased15.0 percent from February 2023 to $74.3 million.

Taiwan was 2nd ranked as an importer during January-February 2024 with 47,439 metric tons valued at $146.7 million up 23.3 percent and 21.4 percent in volume and value respectively, compared to the previous year. Unit price was $1,236 per metric ton.

Cuba was the 3rd largest importer based on volume during January-February 2024 with 46,687 metric tons valued at $53.6 million down 10.5 percent in volume but up 5.9 percent in value compared to January-February 2023. Unit price was $1,146 per metric ton.

During January-February 2024 exports to China, 4th-ranked by volume and 2nd ranked by value represented 7.2 percent by volume and 18.1 percent by value of shipments. Exports were down 47.4 percent in volume to 41,272 metric tons and down 56.4 percent in value to $81.4 million compared to January-February 2023. Unit price was $1,972 per metric ton up 21.5 percent.

For 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices was provided by USAPEEC. Paws and feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton. Legs and leg quarters comprising 22.6 percent of volume and 12.8 percent of value were priced at $990 per metric ton below the $1,302 average for all U.S. exports excluding China. Wings comprised 4.6 percent of volume and 5.7 percent of value with a unit price of $2,190 per metric ton. All other poultry products (including 4 tons of duck meat) amounting to 4.2 percent of volume and 8.4 percent of value attained an average unit price of $3,485 per metric ton

During January-February 2023 exports to Hong Kong increased by 222 percent in volume to 14,300 metric tons and 171 percent in value to $21.5 million with a unit price of $1,504 per metric ton. In 2022 and 2023 unit prices were $1,834 and $1,671 per metric ton respectively. Accordingly consignments are presumed to comprise a high proportion of feet with assumed transshipment to the Mainland as in past years.

During January-February 2024 nations gaining in volume compared to the corresponding period in 2022 (with the percentage change indicated) in descending order of volume with ranking indicated by numeral were:-

1. Mexico (+1%); 2.Taiwan, (+23%); 5, Guatemala, (+3%); 6. Philippines, (+53%); 7. UAE, (+77%); 9. Viet Nam, (+18%) and 11. Hong-Kong, (+222%).

Losses during January-February 2024 offset the gains in exports with declines for:-

1. Cuba, (-10.0%); 4. China, (-47%); 8. Canada, (-4%); 10.Angola, (-23%) 13. Haiti, (-31%).

TURKEY EXPORTS

The volume of turkey meat exported during January-February 2024 increased by 41.7 percent to 33,172 metric tons from January-February 2023 and value was 18.9 percent higher to $121.2 million compared to January-February 2023. Average unit value was 23.2 percent lower to $3,678 per metric ton.

Imports of turkey products were projected to rise to 38,640 metric tons in 2023.

For the entire year of 2023 export volume increased by 20.2 percent to 221,098 metric tons compared to 2022 and value fell by 2.0 percent to $620 million reflecting an 18.5 percent decrease in unit value to $2,829 per metric ton.

Mexico was the leading importer of turkey products during January- February 2024 with 24,120 metric tons representing 72.7 percent of total volume of 35,172 metric tons. Value at 64.6 million was 71.4 percent of the total with a unit price of $2,678 per metric ton. Volume was 44.4 percent higher and value was 9.3 percent higher than for January-February 2023.

The regions of the Caribbean (2,722 metric tons); East Asia, (998); Central America, (1,260) and sub-Saharan Africa (1,612) collectively imported 6,592 metric tons of turkey products in January-February 2024 representing 19.9 percent of volume and 20.7 percent of value amounting to $18.7 million. Unit price was $2,536. Regional unit prices per metric ton ranged from $1,652 for the Leeward-Windward Islands to $3,189 for Canada.

During January-February 2024 nations increasing volumes of purchases, albeit over a small base, compared to the corresponding months in 2023 with ranking comprised:-

1. Mexico, (+44%); Leeward-Windward Islands, (+45%); Dominican Republic, (+317%) and South Africa, (1,618%)
2. Canada reduced imports by 5 percent and 4. Jamaica by 51%).

PROSPECTS FOR 2024

The April 17th 2024 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report, retained the projection for 2023 exports of broiler products at 3.302 million metric tons (7,265 million lbs.). This value represents 15.7 percent of the projected production of 21.083 million metric tons (46,387 million lb.) of broiler RTC by the U.S. industry.

For 2024 exports of broiler products were forecast at 3.209 million metric tons (7,060 million lbs.), equivalent to 14.9 percent of forecast annual production of 21.409 million metric tons (46,875 million lbs.)

Projected export of turkey products in 2023 will be 222,272 metric tons, (489 million lbs.) or 9.0 percent of annual production of 2.481 million metric tons (5,457 million lbs.).

For 2024 exports of turkey products were forecast at 236,400 metric tons (520 million lbs.) equivalent to 9.7 percent of forecast annual production of 2.441 million metric tons (5,375 million lbs.)

It is important to recognize that exports of chicken and turkey meat products to our USMCA partners amounted to $1,264 million in 2021, $1,647 million during 2022 and $1,696 in 2023. It will be necessary for all three parties to the USMCA to respect the terms of the agreement since punitive action against Mexico or Canada on issues unrelated to poultry products will result in reciprocal action by our trading partners to the possible detriment of U.S. agro-industries.

 The emergence of H5N1strain avian influenza virus with a Eurasian genome in migratory waterfowl in all four Flyways during 2022 was responsible for sporadic outbreaks of avian influenza in backyard flocks and serious commercial losses in egg-producing complexes and turkey flocks but to a lesser extent in broilers. The probability of outbreaks of HPAI over succeeding weeks appears more likely as spring migration of waterfowl has commenced. Incident cases during April resulted in depletion of 8.5 million hens and a turkey flock. Outbreaks will be a function of shedding by migratory and domestic birds and possibly mammals. The extent of protection of commercial flocks at present relies on the intensity and efficiency of biosecurity, representing investment in structural improvements and operational procedures. These measures are apparently inadequate to provide absolute protection, suggesting the need for preventive vaccination in high-risk areas for egg-producing, breeder and turkey flocks.

The application of restricted county-wide embargos following the limited and regional cases of HPAI in broilers with restoration of eligibility 28 days after decontamination has supported export volume for the U.S. broiler industry. Exports of turkey products were more constrained with plants processing turkeys in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin and Iowa impacted. Most nations have now lifted embargos that were previously placed on entire states or counties following outbreaks in the 4th quarter of 2024 as the WOAH mandated post-decontamination period has expired. The challenge will be to gain acceptance for vaccination based on intensive surveillance. Recognition that H5N1 HPAI is panornitic in distribution across six continents and is now seasonally or regionally endemic in many nations with intensive poultry production, suggests that vaccination will have to be accepted among trading partners as an adjunct to control measures in accordance with WOAH policy.

The live-bird market system supplying metropolitan areas, the presence of numerous backyard flocks, fighting cocks and commercial laying hens allowed outside access, potentially in contact with migratory and now some resident bird species, all represent an ongoing danger to the entire U.S. commercial industry. The live-bird segments of U.S. poultry production represent a risk to the export eligibility of the broiler and turkey industries notwithstanding compartmentalization for breeders and regionalization to counties or states for commercial production.

Aviagen in collaboration with Jamesway Incubator Company presented a hatchery workshop on April 8th to 11th at the Aviagen Development and Training Center in Albertville, AL.  Presenters included members of the Aviagen Global Incubation Team and specialists affiliated with Jamesway.

Eddy van Lierde, Global head of Incubation Services stated, “Attendees at the North American Hatchery Workshop experienced a blend of theoretical knowledge and practical insight into embryo development to improve hatchery performance.”  He added, “Aviagen is committed to ensuring our customers’ success providing them with the latest technology to achieve continuous improvement in their hatchery and businesses.”

Dr. Keith Bramwell, Director of Hatchery Consultancy for Jamesway observed, “We are honored to collaborate with Aviagen on this well-attended workshop.  It is always a pleasure to share our knowledge with hatchery managers and improve operations.”

Aviagen will collaborate with allied industry suppliers to present short modules that will complement the production courses including the month-long Production Management School.  The focused modules will be presented throughout the year and will address specific management topics benefiting Aviagen customers.

Dr. James Barton has gained extensive experience in the poultry industry in the Southeast and California regions of the industry.  He is currently applying Ancera technology to solving practical problems throughout the poultry industry.  Recently EGG-NEWS had the opportunity to review his activities in the areas of reducing the impact of coccidiosis and Salmonella infection.

CHICK-NEWS:  James, please share your background and experience with our Subscribers.

Dr. James Barton:  My earliest memories of poultry production involved visits to the Animal Science Building at the University of Arkansas with my father Dr. Lionel Barton, who was the Extension Poultry Specialist for the state.  At an early stage I realized that poultry was a growing industry and wanted to contribute to progress in feeding people.

CHICK-NEWS:  Your formal training?

Dr. James Barton:  After three years of a pre-veterinary BS in Agriculture at the University of Arkansas I entered the LSU School of Veterinary Medicine, graduating in 1990.  I applied for and completed a residency in poultry veterinary medicine through the University of California Diagnostic Laboratory System. This enabled me to gain experience in broilers, egg production and turkeys.  Satisfying requirements, I earned Diplomate status in the American College of Poultry Veterinarians in 1992.  Subsequent practical experience allowed me to become a Charter Diplomate of the American College of Animal Welfare.

CHICK-NEWS:  Please describe your industry experience.

Dr. James Barton:  My first professional appointment was with Indian River in Texas as the veterinarian responsible for flock health and technical service both in the U.S. and for international customers.  I accepted a position with Zacky Farms in California working with broilers and turkeys as the company veterinarian.  I was subsequently offered and accepted a position with Cargill Turkeys in Arkansas that involved nine years of managing flock health, establishing a Salmonella control program, and initiating an animal welfare program.  From 2006 to 2009 I was responsible for flock welfare at Tyson Foods, requiring the implementation of procedures to demonstrate compliance with the emerging animal welfare expectations of customers and society.  At the request of the Arkansas Poultry Federation, I modernized the NPIP-approved laboratory while maintaining a consulting practice in the broiler, turkey, and layer industry.

CHICK-NEWS:  When did you join Ancera?

Dr. James Barton:  I was excited to become a member of the Ancera team in 2020 because of their advanced technology that offered food producers the opportunity to focus pathogen monitoring on financial objectives.  Ancera’s platforms provide insights that enable better decision making to maximize profits by lowering cost and increasing production.  Through the unique coccidia-monitoring program, it is possible to quantify the amount of coccidia exposure so that live production managers and vets can move off a failing program quicker and stay on an effective program longer.  Optimizing coccidia control has become even more necessary with the adoption of drug-free and NAE broiler production.

CHICK-NEWS:  How is the program implemented?

Dr. James Barton:  Individual fecal samples are analyzed at our laboratories with a novel diagnostic device called PIPER, which specializes in high-quality, high-throughput microbial enumeration techniques. The basic oocyst per gram data are converted into a graphical image representing the status of the house, farm, and complex over time.  More importantly, Bayesian modeling expresses the current coccidia control status relative to optimal performance expected from the specific control program.

CHICK-NEWS:  Ancera is now applying technology to monitor Salmonella.  Please elaborate.

Dr. James Barton:  Ancera has acquired the global commercial rights for technology developed by Dr. Nikki Shariat at the University of Georgia which involves identification of the CRISPR gene sequences that are unique to Salmonella serotypes. By commercializing this technology and building a user-friendly software platform, our first integrator customers are monitoring the prevalence of their KPI serotypes and getting new visibility into transmission risk patterns. Ancera believes that the future of pre-harvest control of Salmonella infection will depend on recognizing that each Salmonella serotype has a specific behavior – rather than trying to treat Salmonella as a generic organism.  Because traditional Salmonella culture techniques select for the serotypes that are best adapted to artificial media, the presence of multiple serotypes within a flock is overlooked very, very often.  The serotypes that are missing detection in the live flocks can be the ones that are problematic in post-chill carcasses, parts, and ground poultry meat.  Ancera believes that it is necessary to have a close relationship between poultry health and quality control teams within a production company to achieve effective control of potential foodborne pathogens.

CHICK-NEWS:  What does Ancera offer for the future?

Dr. James Barton:  We are very close to launching an assay for Total Viable Bacteria (TVB) that will be independent of culture technology. We are also well down the path of developing a quantitative assay for Clostridium perfringens based on fecal counts that will be valuable in managing programs to inhibit necrotic enteritis and potentially related infections. Finally, we regularly hear from customers about the need to objectively understand whether their vendors’ products used in control programs and interventions are working as intended. We’re excited to share some new developments in this area shortly.

CHICK-NEWS:  Do you have any observations based on your extensive experience?

Dr. James Barton:  The post-DVM training programs should reevaluate the advanced education of poultry veterinarians given the need to base technical decisions on the financial performance in an industry that continues to undergo consolidation.  It is imperative that technical experts become even more involved in quantifying the return on investment from products and management practices – driving the management decisions with effective messaging, based on high quality evidence.

According to news reports, the proposed House of Raeford broiler plant is unlikely to proceed in the selected location in South Carolina. The Aiken City Council has declined to change an ordinance to approve the facility.  The problem relates to available wastewater treatment capacity.  According to the County Council, the City of Aiken can process a maximum of 500,000 gallons of additional capacity per day with the proposed plant requiring 1.7 million gallons using current wastewater treatment technology.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster, is in favor of the project based on job creation and the substantial economic impact. He noted, “I am committed to assist in identifying state funding to help address water and sewer infrastructure so that Aiken County will accommodate both the House of Raeford plant and to have sufficient capacity for future growth.”

The discrepancy between available wastewater processing capacity in Aiken County and the needs of House of Raeford should have eliminated the location for a proposed plant in the initial site evaluation. Failure to identify this preeminent restraint suggests a lack of coordination in conducting the preliminary feasibility study.

The need for a new plant is indicated by the age of the West Columbia plant erected in1959 and acquired by Raeford in 1998. The location in an area undergoing gentrification is now inconsistent with the community and is engendering opposition to its presence based on odor and depression of property values.

Faced with declining demand for pork and the challenges of African swine fever, Danish Crown a major multinational pork producer has announced the intended closure of the Ringsted Packing Plant, currently employing 1,200.

Jais Valeur, Group CEO stated, “It is a heavy decision to close the abattoir in Ringsted but is a necessary measure in our efforts to develop Danish Crown as a modern food company.”  He added, “In making these changes we are doing all we can to improve efficiency at the abattoirs and to sell many more processed products to our key European customers.”

The production capacity at Ringsted will be transferred to other plants in Denmark. It is intended to offer positions at these facilities to displaced employees.  Savings from closing the Ringsted plant will be applied to improve efficiency at four other facilities, creating 300 new positions over three years.

Since 2021, Danish Crown has followed a strategy of providing further-processed pork items and has invested in production capacity in other markets including the U.K.

The decision to rationalize production and to concentrate on higher-value items parallels the recent decisions by Tyson Foods in the U.S. and Olymel in Canada to close obsolete or unprofitable plants and to consolidate production capacity.

Huvepharma has received approval and has released a trivalent oocyst vaccine for turkeys.  The product incorporates three species, Eimeria adenoeides, E. meleagrimitis and E. gallopavonis.

The Huvepharma turkey coccidiosis vaccine is intended to provide optimum protection with minimal post-vaccination reaction.  The oocyst suspension can be administered orally or by hatchery spray.

According to Dr. Steven Clark, Turkey Technical Services Manager at Huvepharma, “Turkey coccidiosis continues to be a top concern of the industry.”  He added, “We are proud to produce another approach to control coccidiosis in turkeys.”

The Huvepharma turkey coccidiosis vaccine is the only available product providing protection against three Eimeria species that impact turkeys. Coccidiosis interacts with viral, protozoal and bacterial intestinal pathogens.  Coccidiosis is a significant detractor from live performance and hence profitability.

MF Meats located in Falconer NY. has recalled 46 tons of raw meat products contaminated with mineral oil disallowed by FSIS.  Over the period November 26, 2023, through February 16, 2024, the Company used a nonapproved mineral oil in the place of food-grade lubricant due to an error made by a supplier.

The problem was recognized following complaints of abnormal taste leading to an investigation that disclosed the misapplication of mineral oil.  It is evident that a proportion of the recalled meat has been consumed although there have been no reports of adverse reaction.  As with all major recalls, FSIS will verify procedures relating to notification of customers and removal of affected the product from the market.

The Bezos Earth Fund will distribute grants to the value of $60 million to various research institutions including universities to improve the texture and taste of plant-based meat.  This allocation will be part of a $1 billion fund intended to “transform the food industry”.

Proponents of plant-based meat alternatives now recognize the lack of consumer acceptance of the category characterized by declining sales. Producers of faux meat that publish financial reports confirm losses. 

Andy Jarvis, Director of the Future of Food, at the Bezos Earth Fund, quoted in Bloomberg, observed that plant-based substitutes for meat “need to cost less and need to be more flavorful”.  This is a tacit admission of the inferiority of current plant-based products and lack of variety despite higher prices.

Peter McGuinness, president and CEO of Impossible Foods recently announced the introduction of new packaging at the National Products Expo West.  McGuinness stated, “We want packaging that lived up to and reflected the deliciousness of our products while really popping on the shelf.”  He added, “What we want to do is educate consumers that they can still enjoy meat by incorporating into their diet a version that’s made from plants instead of animals.” 

McGuinness is clearly a marketing expert but appears to be insensitive to both accounting realities and the organoleptic properties of his products.  Plant based meat alternatives are clearly inferior with respect to appearance, texture and taste.  Shelf prices are higher than the product they purport to replace.  Although Impossible Foods is not a publicly quoted company and therefore does not release financial reports, competitors Beyond Meat and the plant-based division of Maple Leaf Foods confirm non-profitability.

Impossible Foods should concentrate more on improving the quality of the product since the packaging is discarded and not eaten.  The fact that the Bezos Earth Fund is making available grants to food science departments of universities to improve organoleptic qualities of plant-based foods confirms the reality of inferiority despite the Impossible Foods hype.

According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report BR2024-0002, Brazil will increase broiler production to 15.10 million metric tons (33.22 million lbs.) of RTC, an increase of 1.3 percent over 2023.  Of this total, 33.0 percent will be exported amounting to 4.975 million metric tons (10.94 million lbs.) or an increase of 4.3 percent over 2023.  Assuming a population of 220 million, domestic per capita consumption will be 46.0 kg (101.3 lb.).

The GAIN Report noted that in 2023, feed cost representing 68 percent of live-bird cost declined by 22 percent with a corresponding 14 percent drop in chick cost representing 15 percent of live bird cost.  The major increase was a 13 percent rise in the cost of electrical power that represented 2.5 percent of live bird cost.

With regard to exports, Brazil introduced electronic certification for the E.U. that will expedite approval of shipments and reduce cost.  The Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) noted expansion into new markets including Israel, the Pacific Islands and Algeria.  In the case of this nation, Brazil donated 10,000 metric tons of chicken meat as a humanitarian gesture and to gain a foothold in the market.

For 2023, the top importers of chicken from Brazil comprised China (14 %); UAE (9%); Japan (9%); Saudi Arabia (8%) and South Africa (7%).

Brazil has apparently benefited from its status as “free of avian influenza in commercial farms”.

This situation is questioned since the nation reported 158 cases of H5N1 HPAI in backyard flocks and wild birds but miraculously none in commercial flocks.  Eight states reported HPAI including all the major broiler producing areas.

A ProMed report confirmed a recent outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in Chang Hua County involving 20,000 hens that were depleted.  Previous outbreaks have occurred in Ping Tang and Tainan in February.  Since January “tens of thousands of hens” have been culled in Yunlin County resulting from exposure to H5N1 presumably from wild birds. 

With numerous small and intermediate-sized duck and egg farms in close proximity and a live bird market system for broilers, Taiwan is candidate for vaccination against avian influenza H5N1. This is based on the location of the island nation on migratory bird routes and a history of recurring avian influenza suggesting a seasonal endemic status justifying protection.

Chick-fil-A has dropped the strict No Antibiotics Ever (NAE) to a modified No Antibiotics Important to Human Medicine (NAIHM).  The Company has not specified the compounds that will be allowed but if this includes ionophore anticoccidial there will be a benefit to producers with no adverse effect for consumers.  Ionophores are not regarded as “antibiotics” in the E.U. but because the compound suppresses some intestinal bacteria they were unjustifiably included as “antibiotics”, with respect to the FDA classification.  If the Chick-fil-A standard allows the  use of feed additive bacitracin, there will be no deleterious effect since this compound is not used for human medicine other than as a topical application and does not contribute to the emergence of antibiotic resistance.  Inclusion of bacitracin in broiler diets will suppress Clostridium spp. responsible for necrotic enteritis and gangrenous dermatitis.

It will be interesting to observe consumer response to the change in policy that will probably rise to the level of a large yawn. This will hold providing the chain maintains quality and value and can assure customers of ongoing welfare in production that conforms to the NCC standards.

The action by Chick-fil-A parallels the earlier announcement by Panera Bread and could initiate a trend among QSRs and mid-priced supermarket chains to adopt a more realistic policy on antibiotics consistent with scientific and financial realities.

Taylor Farms has recalled ten tons of ready-to-eat apple walnut chicken salad due to non-label disclosure of wheat. Affected product was manufactured between February 28th and March 9th and marketed in Kroger stores in twelve western states.

Product recalls are usually attributed to contamination with pathogens, the presence of foreign material or improper labeling. Misbranding involving the inclusion of a non-declared allergens is a self-inflicted wound and can be avoided by appropriate quality control and coordination within a company.

The Department of Labor has filed lawsuits against three California poultry processors alleging violations of child labor law.  The Wages and Hours Division has been reviewing plant employment records and conducting inspections uncovering “oppressive child labor at poultry processing facilities.” According to the submissions by the Department of Labor the three companies concerned employed children under the age of 18 to debone poultry in contravention of child labor laws.

Defendants include L&Y Food Inc., Moon Poultry Inc. and JCR Culinary Group Inc. and their three respective managers in their personal capacities.

The Department of Labor was granted an injunction embargoing products from the plants although there was evidence that the restraining order was defied.  The Agency alleged that the defendants obstructed investigations including review of employment data.

Hormel Foods has agreed to pay three classes of Plaintiffs in a suit alleging collusion on pork prices.  Commercial indirect purchasers will receive $2.4 million, direct pork purchasers, $4.8 million and consumer indirect purchasers, $4.5 million.

Collectively, there were 146 claimants in 27 cases that were consolidated during December 2022.

The settlement by Hormel Foods follows a June agreement by Seaboard Foods to pay the class of direct purchasers $9.8 million to settle the lawsuit.

Case Foods and Mountaire Farms have agreed to pay $8.5 million and $13.5 million respectively to the class of workers alleging collusion in setting wage rates.

The lawsuit was filed in 2019 and claimed interaction among employers to agree on wage rates and to indirectly share information through AgriStats®.

Recently Perdue Farms settled for $60 million, but there are eighteen integrators still named as defendants.

According to USDA-FAS GAIN report IN2024-0015 released on March 25th India will allow importation of duck meat. During early March, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry authorized imports of premium frozen duck meat in accordance with a harmonized tariff system.

Import duties for duck meat have been reduced with expectations of shipments to the Nation from the U.S albeit it in competition from producers in the E.U. and Asian nations including Thailand and China.

A recent study by Dr. Matthew Stasiewicz at the University of Illinois indicated that regulatory concentration on high levels of known virulent Salmonella serotypes would benefit public health.  To date, Salmonella standards have been based on prevalence resulting in an evident reduction in recovery from processed poultry. Unfortunately there has not been a corresponding reduction in the incidence rate of chicken-related salmonellosis among consumers. 

The risk assessment concluded that specific products with high levels of pathogenic serotypes should receive attention in order to develop appropriate control modalities.  Dr. Stasiewicz suggested that programs focusing on generic prevalence of Salmonella may contribute to the emergence of more pathogenic serotypes such as Salmonella Kentucky.

The risk assessment was supported by a grant from the USPOULTRY Foundation.

According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report E42024-06 released on February 27th, projected broiler production among E.U. nations will increase by 0.8 percent from calendar 2023 to 11.11 million metric tons.  Imports will attain 750,000 metric tons representing 6.8 percent of production.  Exports will rise to 1.67 million metric tons or 15 percent of production.  Net exports will therefore represent 8.2 percent of production at 0.92 million metric tons.  Given an E.U. population of 450 million, projected per capita consumption will amount to 22.6 kg (49.8 lb.) approximately half that of U.S. consumption.

Restraints to output include highly pathogenic avian influenza that has persisted since 2021.  Other hindrances include environmental restraints with limits on nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands and Belgium.  Although the price of ingredients has declined, production costs in France remain high and are limiting output. Economists forecast increase demand for chicken based on the competitive price and availability of pork and beef.

A major issue of contention is the importation of chicken from Ukraine without duty following E.U. regulation 2023/1077.  Poland, the largest producer in the E.U. has requested limits on the importation of broiler products from their eastern neighbor.

Although the U.K. represents a strong market for E.U. chicken, supplied mainly from Poland and Germany, there is now increased supply from Brazil, Thailand and Ukraine. Competition from Brazil, the consistently low-cost supplier has eroded markets for the E.U. in Africa, the Middle East and especially South Africa.

A preliminary release on April 15th by USPOULTRY addressed Project #719 Longitudinal Assessment of Skeletal and Cardiac Structures in Broilers Reared Under Slow Versus Fast Growth Rate Regimen and its Relation to Lameness, Ascites and Woody Breast Condition.

The study conducted by Dr. Prafulla Regmi of the Department of Poultry Science, University of Georgia addressed critical issues in live broiler production.  Due to the restrictions placed by major journals on release of specific data prior to publication, publication of results will be deferred to an appropriate time.  The USPOULTRY release did however include the comment that restricting growth rate can influence welfare parameters but the frequently quoted 50 g per day growth rate promoted by welfare activists is invalid.  The breaking strength of bones is not increased by reducing growth rate.

CHICK-NEWS will review the article and its implications on publication and will comment on data in relation to production programs.

The USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service will continue to allow operation of line speeds of up to 175 birds per minute under a waiver due to expire at the end of March 2024.  Increased line speeds are possible due to advances in the design and operation of killing, defeathering and evisceration equipment that incorporates a high degree of automation.  Close to 50 plants now operate at up to 175 birds per minute without welfare issues relating to either flocks or workers.

Notwithstanding the reality, animal rights organizations including the HSUS, Animal Outlook, Mercy for Animals and kindred organizations are pursuing litigation to deprive the USDA of the right to grant waivers and to restrict line speeds in future rule-making.  Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, has assured the Senate Agriculture Committee that decisions on increased line speeds would be based on scientific evaluation.

Petitioners opposing increased line speeds are less interested in the welfare of flocks than they are in their efforts to impose restraints and increase production costs for all animal protein.  Legal action opposing the decisions of the USDA that contribute to efficiency and hence, profitability is an anathema to those opposed to intensive livestock production and ultimately, consumption of meat.  Any restriction whether based on welfare or environmental issues that places a burden on livestock production is regarded by these groups as a victory.