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Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

09/19/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (projected) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on September 18th 2018.

 

Broiler data for 2019 was unchanged from the August report. Production will increase by 1.9 percent compared to 2018 to 19.736 million metric tons (43,420 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will increase by 1.2 percent to 42.6 kg. (93.7 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.2 percent of RTC production attaining 3.202 million metric tons (7,045 million lbs.) and based on the presumption that either NAFTA will be renegotiated or that a bilateral agreement with Mexico will be approved by Congress.

 

Turkey production will increase by 0.7 percent in 2019 to 2.720 m metric tons (5,997 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will attain 7.4 kg. (16.3 lb.) during 2019. Export volume will increase by 1.7 percent to 0.291 m metric tons (640,000 lbs.).  Forecast values for production and consumption of turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, recent egg settings and poult placements, weekly production and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account either renegotiation of NAFTA or a bilateral agreement with Mexico averting imposition of tariffs. Threatened tariffs would lead to a diminished share of the market in Mexico based on competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

 

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

   

Parameter

    2017 (actual)     

      2018

   (updated)

     2019                 % Difference

  (forecast)           2018 to 2019

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

   18.937 

19.370

       19.736                +1.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

41.3

42.1

           42.6                +1.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.087

3.135

         3.202                +2.1

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.2

           16.2                  0

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.700

         2.714                +0.7

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.4

             7.4                unchanged

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.282

0.286

          0.291               +1.7

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

         10.6

           10.7                +0.9

 

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

 

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –September 18th 2018


 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane