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Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

05/15/2018

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (projected) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on May 15th 2018.

 

Broiler meat production in 2019 will increase by 1.6 percent compared to 2018 to 19.681 m metric tons (43,298 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will increase by 1.2 percent) to 41.8 kg. (92.0 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.4 percent of RTC production attaining 3.227 m metric tons (7,099 million lbs.)

 

Turkey production will decrease by 0.9 percent in 2019 to 2.714 m metric tons (5,971 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain constant in 2019 at 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) Export volume will decline by 0.9 percent to 0.298 m metric tons (656,000 lbs).  Forecast values for production and consumption of turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, production and inventory. The projection does not take into account possible collapse of NAFTA and loss of market penetration into Mexico.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

   

Parameter

    2017 (actual)     

      2018

   (updated)

     2019                 % Difference

  (forecast)           2018 to 2019

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

   18.937 

19.241

       19.681                +1.6

Consumption (kg per capita)

41.3

41.8

           42.3                +1.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.082

3.153

         3.227                +2.3

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.4

           16.4                     0

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.690

         2.714                -0.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.5

7.3

             7.3                   0

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.282

0.297

          0.298               +0.3

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

         11.0

           10.9                -0.9

 

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

 

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –May 15th 2018


 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane