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Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, April 25th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the April 17th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 982.02 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from the week ending March 23rd 2024 through April 13th 2024 inclusive. This quantity was two percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 756.06 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 78.9 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, down from 79.7 percent for the preceding four-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.89 million chicks placed per week and 1.80 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through April 13th 2024 chick placements attained 2.81 billion

According to the April 22nd 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during March 2024 amounted to 9.42 million, up 4.8 percent (428,000 pullet chicks) from March 2023 and 14.9 percent (1.22 million pullet chicks) more than the previous month of February 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 62.6 million on March 1st 2024, 2.6 percent more (1.6 million hens) than on March 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the April 19th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending April 13th 2024, 162.2 million broilers were processed at 6.44 lbs. live. This was 1.0 percent more than the 160.6 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of March 2024 and 3.2 percent less than the 167.6 million processed during the corresponding week in April 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 2,420 million, 2.7 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in April was 793.6 million lbs. (360.72 metric tons). This was 1.4 percent more than the 782.3 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in March 2024 and 1.6 percent less than the 806.1 million lbs. during the corresponding week in April 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 11,883 million lbs. (5.40 million metric tons). This quantity was 1.1 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price compared over a four-week period was up 0.9 cents per lb. or 0.7 percent to 132.1 cents per lb. compared to the corresponding week in March 2024. The attached USDA figures denote average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork.

The USDA National benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) are tabulated from the USDA Weekly National Chicken Report released on April 19th.

*Incorporated NCAA Tournaments

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending April 13th and YTD 2024 were:-

During the week ending April 13th 2024 broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 17 percent of processed volume compared to 15 percent during the corresponding week in March 2024.

On April 15th 2024 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 70,094 lbs. 4.1 percent less than the inventory of 73,075 lbs. on April1st 2024.

According to the April 24th 2024 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of March 31st 2024 compared to March 31st 2023 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 763.7 million lbs. (347,142 metric tons) corresponding to approximately 1.2 weeks production based on recent weekly RTC output. The March 31st 2024 inventory was down 10.5 percent compared to 853,341 million lbs. (387,882 metric tons) on March 31st 2023 and down 3.0 percent from the previous month of February 2024.
• LegQuarters were down by 17.0 percent to 61.6 million lbs. compared to March 31st 2023 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 1.7 percent from February 29th Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (97 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations with Mexico the leading importer. For the first two months of 2024 the top five importers represented 49.5 percent of volume and the top ten importers represented 66.9 percent.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 5.0 percent from March 31st 2023 to 221.3 million lbs. indicating a relatively stable domestic consumer demand despite concern over inflation in the cost of protein. March 31st 2024 stocks were 5.3 percent lower than on February 29th 2024 suggesting higher retail and food service demand for this category with promotion of chicken sandwiches by QSRs in the face of a stable to decreasing pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) decreased 47.9 percent from March 31st 2023 to 66.5 million lbs. This difference suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower-priced dark meat against the prevailing price of white chicken meat.

• Wings showed a 19.6 percent decrease from March 31st 2023, contributing to a stock of 51.8 million lbs. This category was 1.7 percent lower compared to February 29th Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated growth in demand for this category. Sales are impacted by competition from “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events including the College Bowl and Super Bowl events reduced volume of storage in January and February 2024. The draw down from March Madness is not evident in the April Report. The progressive increase in unit price during the first quarter of 2023 should be repeated in 2024.

• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 20.3 percent lower than on March 31st 2023 to 25.8 million lbs. and inventory was 1.0 percent lower than on February 29th Prior to the April 2020 Phase-1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland, a trend that is re-emerging. During 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices provided by USAPEEC confirmed that Paws and Feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton.
• The Other category comprising 320.2 million lbs. on March 31st 2024 was down 10.5 percent from March 31st 2023 but represented a substantial 41.9 percent of inventory. The high proportion in the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

March 2024 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on April 25th 2024 covered March 2024 comprising 23 working days. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 744.8 million broilers were processed in March 2024, down 71.2 million or 8.7 percent from March 2023;
• Total live weight in March 2024 was 4,816 million lbs., down 473.1 million lbs. or 8.9 percent from March 2023;
• Unit live weight in March 2024 was 6.47 lbs., 0.1 lb. lower from March 2023.
• RTC in March 2024 attained 3,636 million lbs., down 355.4 million lbs. or 8.9 percent from February 2023.
• WOG yield in March 2024 was 75.5 percent, unchanged from March 2023.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in March 2024 comprised 93.5 percent of RTC output compared to 93.4 percent in March 2023..
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.18 percent during March 2024 compared to 0.19 percent in March 2023.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.49 percent during March 2024 compared to 0.48 percent in March 2023.

Comments

For 2023 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,635,178 metric tons (3,794,328 metric tons in 2022) with a value of $4,739 million ($5,217 million in 2022). Unit value decreased 5.2 percent from 2022 to $1,304 per metric ton (including feet) from $1,375 per metric ton.

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is more predictable with bans on a statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization. The challenge facing exporting nations will be to gain acceptance for controlled vaccination against HPAI in specific sectors and regions with appropriate surveillance and certification to the satisfaction of importing nations.

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $1,175 million in 2021 and $1,256 million in 2022 compared to 2023 at $1,246 million.

The USDA April projection for RTC broiler production over 2024 will be 47,100 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 100.3 lbs. Exports amounting to 7,060 million lbs. will represent 14.9 percent of production.