According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report E42024-06 released on February 27th, projected broiler production among E.U. nations will increase by 0.8 percent from calendar 2023 to 11.11 million metric tons. Imports will attain 750,000 metric tons representing 6.8 percent of production. Exports will rise to 1.67 million metric tons or 15 percent of production. Net exports will therefore represent 8.2 percent of production at 0.92 million metric tons. Given an E.U. population of 450 million, projected per capita consumption will amount to 22.6 kg (49.8 lb.) approximately half that of U.S. consumption.
Restraints to output include highly pathogenic avian influenza that has persisted since 2021. Other hindrances include environmental restraints with limits on nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands and Belgium. Although the price of ingredients has declined, production costs in France remain high and are limiting output. Economists forecast increase demand for chicken based on the competitive price and availability of pork and beef.
A major issue of contention is the importation of chicken from Ukraine without duty following E.U. regulation 2023/1077. Poland, the largest producer in the E.U. has requested limits on the importation of broiler products from their eastern neighbor.
Although the U.K. represents a strong market for E.U. chicken, supplied mainly from Poland and Germany, there is now increased supply from Brazil, Thailand and Ukraine. Competition from Brazil, the consistently low-cost supplier has eroded markets for the E.U. in Africa, the Middle East and especially South Africa.