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Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, February 25th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the March 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 974.75 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from the week ending February 24th 2024 through March 16th 2024 inclusive. This quantity was higher by slightly less than two percent compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 748.76 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.1 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, down from 79.5 percent for the preceding four-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.86 million chicks placed per week and 1.77 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through March 16th 2024 chick placements attained 2.05 billion

According to the March 22nd 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during February 2024 amounted to 8.20 million, up 6.4 percent (491,000 pullet chicks) from February 2023 and 10.2 percent (761,000 pullet chicks) more than the previous month of January 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 62.3 million on March 1st   2024, 1.5 percent less (953,000 hens) than on March 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the March 22nd 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending March 16th 2024, 160.6 million broilers were processed at 6.41 lbs. live. This was 2.2 percent less than the 164.2 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of February 2024 and 2.3 percent less than the 164.3 million processed during the corresponding week in March 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 1,774 million, 3.0 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 782.3 million lbs. (355,58` metric tons).  This was 3.0 percent less than the 806.1 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in February 2024 and 1.3 percent less than the 792.9 million lbs. during the corresponding week in March 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 8,730 million lbs. (3.97 million metric tons). This quantity was 1.8 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price compared over a four-week period was up 4.9 cents per lb. or 3.9 percent to 131.2 cents per lb. compared to the corresponding week in February 2024. The attached USDA figures denotes average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork

The USDA National benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) are tabulated from the USDA Weekly National Chicken Report released on March 22nd

                            *Incorporated Super Bowl and play-off weekends

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending March 16th and YTD 2024 were:-

During the week ending March 16th 2024 broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 15 percent of processed volume compared to 21 percent during the corresponding week in February 2024.

On March 18th 2024 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 73,075 lbs. 1.8 percent less than the inventory of 74,406 lbs. on March 1st 2024.

According to the March 25th 2024 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of February 29th 2024 compared to February 28th 2023 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 788.1 million lbs. (358,205 metric tons) corresponding to approximately 1.2 weeks production based on recent weekly RTC output. The February 29th 2024 inventory was down 9.0 percent compared to 865.8 million lbs. (393,539 metric tons) on February 28th 2023 and down 5.0 percent from the previous month of January 2024.
• Leg Quarters were down by 9.3 percent to 60.9 million lbs. compared to February 28th 2023 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 5.6 percent from January 31st 2024. Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (97 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations with Mexico the leading importer but with approximately 30 percent of this category comprising shipments to China.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 4.6 percent from February 28th 2023 to 233.5 million lbs. indicating a relatively stable domestic consumer demand despite concern over inflation in the cost of protein. February 29th 2024 stocks were 0.8 percent lower than on January 31st 2024 suggesting higher retail and food service demand for this category with promotion of chicken sandwiches by QSRs in the face of \a stable to decreasing pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) decreased 4.0 percent from February 28th 2023 to 71.1 million lbs. This difference suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower-priced dark meat against the prevailing price of white chicken meat.

• Wings showed a 17.3 percent decrease from February 28th 2023, contributing to a stock of 50.9 million lbs. This category was 7.9 percent lower compared to January 31st 2024. Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated growth in demand for this category. Sales are impacted by competition from “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events including the College Bowl and Super Bowl events reduced volume in storage in  January and February 2024. The draw down from March Madness will be evident in the April Report. The progressive increase in unit price during the first quarter of 2023 should be repeated in 2024.

• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 13.1 percent lower than on February 28th 2023 to 28.1 million lbs. but inventory was 1.7 percent higher than on January 31st 2024. Prior to the April 2020 Phase-1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland, a trend that is re-emerging. For 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices provided by USAPEEC confirmed that Paws and feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton.
• The Other category comprising 327.2 million lbs. on February 29th 2024 was down 10.8 percent from February 28th 2023 but represented a significant 41.6 percent of inventory. The high proportion in the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

February 2024 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on March 25th 2024 covered February 2024 comprising 20 working days. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 761.1 million broilers were processed in February 2024, up 20.1 million or 4.1 percent from February 2023;
• Total live weight in February 2024 was 4,941 million lbs., up 195.8 million lbs. or 4.1 percent from February 2023;
• Unit live weight in February 2024 was 6.49 lbs., unchanged from February 2023.
• RTC in February 2024 attained 3,734 million lbs., up 149.4 million lbs. or 4.2 percent from February 2023.
• WOG yield in February 2024 was 75.5 percent, unchanged from February 2023.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in February 2024 comprised 92.2 percent of RTC output compared to 93.2 percent in February 2023.
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.19 percent during February 2024 compared to 0.20 percent in February 2023.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.48 percent during February 2024 compared to 0.52 percent in February 2023. 

Comments

For 2023 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,635,178 metric tons (3,794,328 metric tons in 2022) with a value of $4,739 million ($5,217 million in 2022). Unit value decreased 5.2 percent from 2022 to $1,304 per metric ton (including feet) from $1,375 per metric ton.

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is more predictable with bans on a statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization. The challenge facing exporting nations will be to gain acceptance for controlled vaccination against HPAI in specific sectors and regions with appropriate surveillance and certification to the satisfaction of importing nations.

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $1,175 million in 2021 and $1,256 million in 2022 compared to 2023 at $1,246 million.

The USDA March projection for RTC broiler production over 2024 will be 46,875 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 100.4 lbs. Exports amounting to 7,165 million lbs. will represent 15.3 percent of production.

Effective mid-February 2024 the fall 2023 wave of HPAI has resulted in loss of 2.0 million broilers on 8 farms in four states. A total of 130,000 broiler breeders were depopulated on four farms in three states.