Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for March 2024.
On March 15th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2022 (actual), an updated projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024.
The 2023 projection for broiler production is 46,387 million lbs. (21.085 million metric tons) up 0.4 percent from 2022 and less than a 0.1 percent upward adjustment from the February 2024 report. USDA projected per capita consumption of 99.5 lbs. (45.2 kg.) for 2023, down 0.1 percent from 2022. Exports will attain 7,265 million lbs. (3.302 million metric tons), 0.1 percent below the previous year.
The 2024 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 46,875 million lbs. (21.306 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 0.3 lb. to 100.4 lbs. (45.6 kg). Exports will be 1.4 percent lower than in 2023 to 7,165 million lbs. (3.257 million metric tons), equivalent to 15.4 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2022
(actual)
|
2023
(projection)
|
2024
(forecast)
|
Difference
2023 to 2024
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,207
|
46,387
|
46,875
|
+0.8
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
98.9
|
99.5
|
100.4
|
+0.9
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,290
|
7,265
|
7,165
|
-1.4
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
15.3
|
-2.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,222
|
5,457
|
5,370
|
-1.6
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.6
|
14.8
|
14.7
|
-0.7
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
407
|
489
|
520
|
+6.3
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
7.8
|
9.0
|
9.7
|
7.8
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 15th 2024
The March USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry in 2023 including annual production of 5,457 million lbs. (2.480 million metric tons), up 4.5 percent from 2022. Consumption in 2023 was projected at 14.8 lbs. (6.7 kg.) per capita, up 1.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 20.1 percent in 2023 to 489 million lbs. (222,272 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2023 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2024 forecast for turkey production will be 5,370 million lbs. (2.441 million metric tons) down 1.6 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 14.7 lbs. (6.7 kg). Exports will be 6.3 percent higher than in 2023 to 520 million lbs. (236,000 metric tons) equivalent to 9.7 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to 2022, exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.